Accuracy
How accurate is EdgeVisor?
Every non-skip prediction is recorded. When a market resolves, we compare our call to the actual outcome. These are live numbers — not backtest, not cherry-picked.
Win Rate
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Brier Score
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Resolved
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Categories
tracked independently
Accuracy by category
Each category has its own signal stack and context depth. Win rate and Brier score are tracked independently — some categories are structurally harder than others.
Expected vs Actual
How closely EdgeVisor probability estimates match real outcomes. Points near the diagonal mean the system is well-calibrated — when we say 70%, the event happens roughly 70% of the time.
Resolution composition
Breakdown of how markets resolved and which side EdgeVisor recommended. A healthy system does not always bet the same direction.
Methods
All metrics are calculated from resolved predictions — markets that have closed and produced a definitive outcome. Predictions that are still pending are excluded from accuracy calculations.
1
Ingestion & normalization
Live prediction markets are ingested, normalized by category, and enriched with market structure context: price, spread, depth, time-to-close.
Read: How analytics works →
2
Multiple analysts
Each market runs through base-rate context, liquidity checks, behavioral signals, and external evidence when the category supports it.
Read: Methodology →
3
Decision rules & sizing
The decision engine gates on liquidity, timing, and evidence quality. Sizing uses the Kelly criterion under explicit assumptions.
Open: EV calculator →
4
Learning loop & calibration
Resolved outcomes feed back into the online adjuster. Signal weights drift toward families that helped and away from those that hurt.
Read: Track record & learning →
5
What we measure
Win Rate = fraction of resolved predictions where our recommended side matched the actual outcome. Brier Score = mean squared error between predicted probability and actual result (lower is better). Neither metric equals profit.
Read: Glossary →
6
Trust boundaries
No hidden human analyst layer. No claim that +EV on paper equals executable alpha after slippage. No anonymous preview writes into the track record.
Read: FAQ →
Frequently asked questions
What does "accuracy" mean here?
Accuracy here means win rate — the percentage of resolved predictions where EdgeVisor's recommended side (YES or NO) matched the actual market outcome. It is a directional metric, not a probability quality metric. For probability quality, see Brier score.
What is a Brier score?
The Brier score measures how close predicted probabilities are to actual outcomes. It is calculated as
(predicted - actual)² averaged over all resolved predictions. A score of 0 is perfect, 0.25 is random, and higher is worse. Learn more in the glossary.Why does accuracy differ by category?
Because each category has different signal depth. Politics and macro can use monitored news feeds and official data sources. Sports relies more on market structure. Crypto reprices faster than other categories. These differences affect how much useful edge the system can find. Read about sports, politics, crypto, macro.
Does a good win rate mean guaranteed profit?
No. Win rate is directional accuracy. Profit depends on entry price, sizing, slippage, and market conditions. A 60% win rate can still lose money with bad sizing. EdgeVisor explicitly avoids profit guarantees. Read: EdgeVisor vs crowd price.
Where does this data come from?
Every prediction EdgeVisor makes is stored with a timestamp, probability estimate, side, and confidence. When Polymarket resolves the market, the outcome is automatically matched and the Brier score is computed. The data shown here is the same data that powers the dashboard track record tab.
How is this different from Polymarket's accuracy page?
Polymarket measures how well its market prices predict outcomes. EdgeVisor measures how well its model estimates disagree with those prices and still turn out correct. We are not measuring the same thing — we are measuring our ability to find mispricings in the crowd consensus. Read: How analytics works.
This is a research tool. EdgeVisor shows markets where analytical signals suggest the crowd price may be miscalibrated. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Win rate and Brier score are informational metrics — they are not profit metrics and should not be treated as financial advice. Always do your own research before trading. Read the full FAQ.