How to use this page
Read the extract first, then the application and limits sections, and only then decide whether the thesis is strong enough for action or only for context.
Extractable overview
Current macro evidence feeds: monitored Federal Reserve and BLS RSS items.
Interpretation rule: citations improve context, but macro markets can still move violently on releases and revisions.
User implication: treat macro picks as structured research around a live consensus, not as certainty about the next print.
Signals used
Macro and economics markets lean on the same core model stack: baseline context, liquidity, timing, cross-market comparisons, and other structure signals. The difference is that macro can also receive fresh evidence from monitored official feeds.
| Macro component | What it helps with | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| Official feed citations | Show what formal information was visible to the system | Useful for auditability, not as a guarantee of directional correctness |
| Market-structure stack | Shows how the crowd is pricing the release, path, or regime question | Still central because macro markets can move before and after public releases |
| Cross-market disagreement | Highlights disagreement across probability surfaces | Most useful when it persists after obvious public information is already known |
External evidence
When a macro market maps into the monitored macro bucket and the feed cache contains fresh items, those items can be attached as citations. This makes the explanation more auditable because the user can inspect what recent official information was visible to the system.
- Best macro use case: use citations to audit whether the model had access to the obvious public context before you trust the thesis.
- Reading rule: macro citations help answer “what was knowable,” not “what must happen next.”
- Execution rule: around major releases, even a well-documented macro thesis may be informational first and tradable second.
Limits
Macro markets are still dangerous to oversimplify. A citation can show that the system saw relevant official news, but it cannot freeze the crowd price in place or remove event risk around a release.
| What often goes wrong | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Over-trusting the citation layer | Official context can still be fully priced before the user acts |
| Ignoring event timing | Execution quality around releases can dominate thesis quality |
Frequently asked questions
The current monitored macro feeds include Federal Reserve and BLS RSS sources.
No. Citations improve evidence context; they are not a guarantee of directional accuracy.