Decisions
Calibrated, watch-first analyses of live prediction-market contracts — what the price says, where the disagreement comes from, and what EdgeVisor adds.
Will Bitcoin trade above $150k in 2026?
Speculative upside is real, but long-dated crypto markets often overstate narrative momentum.
Will Ethereum trade above $10,000 in 2026?
ETH targets at round numbers attract reflexive pricing. The question is whether on-chain fundamentals justify the narrative.
Will Solana trade above $500 in 2026?
High throughput and DeFi activity create a bull case, but chain reliability and Ethereum L2 competition are key risks.
Will Ethereum ETF weekly flows stay net positive through 2026?
Structural demand can persist, but fee compression and rotation into BTC ETFs create churn risk.
Will the Fed cut by July 2026?
Base case: the market is directionally sensible, but timing confidence is thin.
Will the US enter a recession in 2026?
The yield curve, leading indicators, and labor data disagree on timing, making the binary price misleading.
How many ECB rate cuts in 2026?
The market price compresses multiple rate-path scenarios into a single number. The shape of the path matters more.
Will NVIDIA stock trade above $200 in 2026?
AI hardware demand supports the bull case, but momentum pricing and valuation compression are both real risks.
Will US inflation drop below 2% in 2026?
Disinflationary trend continues, but shelter costs and supply chain reshoring create structural floor effects.
Will EU carbon credits trade above €100 in 2026?
EU ETS reform tightens supply, but economic slowdown and renewable energy growth create offsetting demand uncertainty.
Will gold trade above $4,000 in 2026?
Inflation hedging narratives can lift spot prices, but real yields and dollar liquidity remain primary swing factors.
Will Brent crude trade above $100 in 2026?
Supply restraint plus geopolitical risk can justify elevated tails, but demand elasticity caps sustained triple-digit pricing.
Will the Fed cut rates by March 2026?
Dot plots and inflation persistence anchor expectations; headline surprises move near-term odds fast.
Will the US government shut down in 2026?
Political process markets are often useful for information, but not always clean for direct action.
Will Trump run for president in 2028?
Media narrative and legal proceedings create noise. The market price reflects speculation more than structural evidence.
Will there be a China-Taiwan military conflict in 2026?
Geopolitical tail-risk markets are systematically overpriced during media escalation cycles.
Will the UK hold a general election in 2026?
Fixed-term expectations anchor the market, but dissolution triggers exist outside the standard calendar.
Will there be a lasting Israel-Hamas ceasefire in 2026?
Diplomatic channels remain active, but historical patterns suggest temporary truces outweigh lasting agreements.
Will a G20 country roll back a major net-zero pledge in 2026?
Electoral cycles and energy security shocks create rollback tail risk even when headline policy remains.
Will the Lakers make a deep playoff run?
Sports probabilities can look precise while still being fragile to one injury or bracket shift.
Who will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Multi-outcome markets are prone to recency bias and home-field narrative. Base rates matter more than pre-tournament hype.
Who will win Super Bowl LX?
Injury reports and playoff efficiency metrics outweigh regular-season narratives.
Will OpenAI ship GPT-5 in 2026?
The question is less about hype and more about how the market defines shipment.
Will an AI system pass the Turing Test in 2026?
The answer depends entirely on how the resolution criterion defines passing. Contract text matters more than headlines.
Will SpaceX achieve Starship orbital success in 2026?
SpaceX has a track record of delayed timelines but eventual delivery. The market tends to overprice the near-term and underprice the inevitable.
Will Apple launch a dedicated AI hardware device in 2026?
Supply chain signals and patent filings suggest activity, but Apple's secrecy makes timing highly uncertain.
Will the EU AI Act see major enforcement actions in 2026?
Rule-making lags technology; enforcement probability depends on designated compliance deadlines.
Will X (Twitter) file for an IPO in 2026?
Capital markets windows and debt burdens matter more than product launches.