Prediction Market Research

Markets get
prices wrong. We notice.

EdgeVisor helps you decide faster with two edge paths: early contrarian disagreement and convergence when the crowd starts to agree but edge still remains.

New to prediction markets?
Live example · same card as dashboard
See live picks Read the method → Analyze a market →
Resolved case EdgeVisor flagged the Iran sanctions market at 8¢ YES. The market resolved YES — a +$1,150 return on $100 for anyone who acted on the signal.
Full track record →
How it works

From market price to research thesis in 3 steps

No black box. Here's a real example using an Iran sanctions market.

  1. We spot the anomaly

    Scan · rank · filter

    We continuously scan live prediction markets and flag prices that deserve a closer review. Example: a geopolitical market at 8¢ YES — the crowd implies only an 8% chance.

    • Market priceYES 8¢
    • Volume 24h$3.5M
    • StatusActive market

  2. 5 analysts weigh in

    Independent lenses · weighted consensus

    Five models stress the same market from different angles — base rates, liquidity, cross-source agreement — then we blend them with calibration-aware weights.

    • Base rate (history)22%
    • Liquidity signalthin → lean up
    • Cross-source consensus19%
    • Our consensus~24%

  3. You see why, you decide

    Transparent pick · your call

    When the gap is meaningful and context holds, we publish the signal with mode (Early / Convergence), horizon, and review triggers. Execution stays yours.

    • Market says8%
    • We say24%
    • ModeEARLY
    • Horizon~96h · review active
    • Edge+16% → PICK
    • $100 at 8¢ YES+$1,150 if correct
Application Layer — Live Examples

Current picks

Markets where the structured estimate differs meaningfully from the current price. Updated continuously.

Live data
See all 25 picks in dashboard →
Paper Lab · Zero wallet

Test your read before real money

Any Polymarket event — politics, sports, weather, macro. Log a YES or NO stake at the current price; we freeze entry and settle when the market resolves. No wallet, no CLOB orders.

  1. Choose a marketLive picks or catalog.
  2. Log side + stakeCrowd YES% frozen at entry.
  3. See P&L on resolutionSame feed as Performance.
Example markets

Pick YES or NO on the card, set stake, then log a paper bet.

If correct —

Your lab log

Examples below — your bets replace these after you place one.

    Real tradingWallet · CLOB orders · irreversible fills Paper labSame payoff math · zero capital at risk
    Open paper lab → Sign in to sync bets

    Not financial advice. Paper rows are simulated — no orders are placed on Polymarket.

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    Partner program & embed docs →
    Pricing

    Start free. Upgrade when you see the value.

    Sign up free — new accounts get a 3-day Pro trial while we are in active development. No credit card required.

    Paid Pro is $149/mo when Stripe checkout is live; until then, join the waitlist or keep using the trial window.

    Free — always
    $0/mo
    Evaluate the workflow before you pay
    • 3-day Pro trial on new sign-up (early access)
    • Top 3 ranked picks with edge summary & recommendation
    • 7-day track record window
    • Watchlist (25 markets) · 3 basic alerts · paper bets
    • Live prices · 25-market catalog · 3 deep analyses/day
    Open dashboard free →
    Most popular
    Pro
    $149/mo
    Full research surface for repeat decision-making
    • Everything in Free, plus:
    • All 25 picks + full bull/bear thesis & analyst lenses
    • Unlimited track record · 100-market catalog
    • Real-time whale flow · all alert types · Pro API
    • Portfolio simulation · 50 deep analyses/day
    • Morning digest (when email delivery is enabled)
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    Custom
    Distribution & embeds for publishers
    • Embeddable live market cards on articles
    • Geo + keyword personalization
    • White-label branding & custom CTAs
    • Affiliate routing & rollout support
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    Interpretive Layer — FAQ

    Frequently asked questions

    Clear answers. No marketing fluff.

    EdgeVisor is a research tool for prediction markets — not a trading bot. It scans Polymarket every 30 seconds with multiple analytical lenses, surfaces markets where the price may be wrong, and shows you why. You decide whether to act; EdgeVisor never places trades and never manages funds.
    By comparing the current market price against its own structured estimate, external reference venues, and evidence context. When the gap is meaningful and the supporting signals are coherent, the market is surfaced for review with a bull case, a bear case, and the conditions that would kill the thesis.
    Yes. Every resolved outcome is logged, calibration is tracked per category, and the internal weighting of analytical lenses is adjusted as some signals prove more or less reliable. The system does not rely on a fixed mix forever.
    Liquid Polymarket markets — the top markets by 24h volume across politics, macro, sports, crypto, and science, with cross-checks from related venues when useful. Coverage depth varies with how much evidence and market context is available per category.
    Two metrics: Brier Score and Win Rate. Brier Score = (predicted probability − actual outcome)² — lower is better: 0 = perfect, 0.25 = random coin flip. Win Rate = percentage of picks where the recommended direction (YES/NO) was correct. Every prediction is logged at issue time with market price, our estimate, and confidence; resolved outcomes update both metrics per category, so you can see where EdgeVisor is calibrated and where it is not.
    No — EdgeVisor is research, not advice. It surfaces markets where the price may be wrong and gives you a structured read (bull case, bear case, what kills the trade), but the final decision is always yours. EdgeVisor does not place trades, does not manage funds, and is not a licensed financial advisor. Prediction market trading involves real financial risk.
    New accounts receive a 3-day Pro trial during early access. After it ends, Free limits apply: 3 top picks with summary-level context (not the full bull/bear research pack), a 7-day track record, a 25-market catalog, and up to 3 basic alerts. Pro at $149/month unlocks all 25 picks with analyst breakdown, unlimited track record, real-time whale activity, Pro API keys, portfolio simulation, and higher analysis quotas. Paid checkout may be waitlisted — use /pricing to join; support can extend Pro manually.