Every category has a baseline context layer that helps frame whether the current market price looks broadly plausible. This is one of the starting anchors before looking at market-specific data.

Prediction market crowds can become stretched, emotional, or overly reactive. When the market price looks meaningfully out of line with the broader context, we flag it for closer inspection.

The goal is not to expose internal formulas. The goal is to show where price behavior may deserve more skepticism.

Confidence depends on liquidity, timing, and how coherent the market context looks. Deep active markets are often harder to fade than thin or noisy ones.

Every non-skip prediction is recorded. When a market closes, we compare our call to the actual outcome and review probability quality, calibration, and signal usefulness over time.

Lower probability error is better, but no single metric should be confused with profit.