other
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?
Leaning YES, 72% confidence. Our estimate: 10.1% vs market 7.1% (edge: +3.0 pts).
Key reasons
- Price is near historical base rate — crowd is relatively efficient
- Whale-level volume signals potential institutional conviction
- Liquidity regime is 537,276 USDC / 24h with spread 0.30%
What could break this thesis
- No significant edge identified at current price level
- Keir Starmer's position as UK Prime Minister faces intensifying pressure from the Peter Mandelson scandal, where revelations over the past 4…
What this analysis does not cover
This analysis does not account for breaking news, regulatory changes, or insider information that may emerge after publication.
Frequently asked questions
Should I bet on Starmer out by April 30, 2026??
Based on our analysis, we lean YES with 72% confidence, but this is a research signal, not financial advice.
What does edge mean for Starmer out by April 30, 2026??
Edge (+3.0 pts) is the gap between our probability estimate and the market price. Positive edge on YES means the market may be underpricing this outcome.
How accurate is this prediction?
Check our track record at /accuracy for live Brier scores and calibration data.
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