politics
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Leaning YES, 72% confidence. Our estimate: 21.9% vs market 14.5% (edge: +7.5 pts).
Key reasons
- Market may be discounting this outcome due to media narrative bias
- Historical analogues suggest higher base probability
- Liquidity regime is 403,042 USDC / 24h with spread 1.00%
What could break this thesis
- Thin liquidity — price reflects few participants
- No strong evidence the market has fully priced recent developments
- Direct US-Iran peace talks, the highest-level since 1979, began April 11 in Islamabad under Pakistani mediation, building on a fragile two-w…
What this analysis does not cover
This analysis does not account for breaking news, regulatory changes, or insider information that may emerge after publication.
Frequently asked questions
Should I bet on US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026??
Based on our analysis, we lean YES with 72% confidence, but this is a research signal, not financial advice.
What does edge mean for US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026??
Edge (+7.5 pts) is the gap between our probability estimate and the market price. Positive edge on YES means the market may be underpricing this outcome.
How accurate is this prediction?
Check our track record at /accuracy for live Brier scores and calibration data.
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