politics
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Leaning YES, 72% confidence. Our estimate: 19.3% vs market 10.5% (edge: +8.8 pts).
Key reasons
- Market may be discounting this outcome due to media narrative bias
- Historical analogues suggest higher base probability
- Liquidity regime is 389,029 USDC / 24h with spread 1.00%
What could break this thesis
- Thin liquidity — price reflects few participants
- No strong evidence the market has fully priced recent developments
- US precision airstrikes on April 7 targeted over 90 Iranian military sites on Kharg Island, Iran's vital Persian Gulf oil export hub handlin…
What this analysis does not cover
This analysis does not account for breaking news, regulatory changes, or insider information that may emerge after publication.
Frequently asked questions
Should I bet on Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30??
Based on our analysis, we lean YES with 72% confidence, but this is a research signal, not financial advice.
What does edge mean for Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30??
Edge (+8.8 pts) is the gap between our probability estimate and the market price. Positive edge on YES means the market may be underpricing this outcome.
How accurate is this prediction?
Check our track record at /accuracy for live Brier scores and calibration data.
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· Track record
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