politics
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Leaning NO, 54% confidence. Our estimate: 94.2% vs market 96.5% (edge: -2.3 pts).
Key reasons
- Price is near historical base rate — crowd is relatively efficient
- $1.0M daily volume — strong liquidity supports clean entry
- Whale-level volume signals potential institutional conviction
What could break this thesis
- No significant edge identified at current price level
- A fragile Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire in the US-Israel-Iran war, agreed on April 8 after Iran's initial rejection, nears expiration…
- No fresh cited political source is currently attached, so this is mainly a market-structure thesis.
What this analysis does not cover
This analysis does not account for breaking news, regulatory changes, or insider information that may emerge after publication.
Frequently asked questions
Should I bet on Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7??
Based on our analysis, we lean NO with 54% confidence, but this is a research signal, not financial advice.
What does edge mean for Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7??
Edge (-2.3 pts) is the gap between our probability estimate and the market price. Positive edge on NO means the market may be underpricing this outcome.
How accurate is this prediction?
Check our track record at /accuracy for live Brier scores and calibration data.
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