politics
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Leaning NO, 72% confidence. Our estimate: 72.6% vs market 75.5% (edge: -2.9 pts).
Key reasons
- Price is near historical base rate — crowd is relatively efficient
- Whale-level volume signals potential institutional conviction
- Liquidity regime is 330,806 USDC / 24h with spread 1.00%
What could break this thesis
- No significant edge identified at current price level
- Recent US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad collapsed on April 12 after 21 hours without resolving core disputes over Iran's nuclear enrichment…
- No fresh cited political source is currently attached, so this is mainly a market-structure thesis.
What this analysis does not cover
This analysis does not account for breaking news, regulatory changes, or insider information that may emerge after publication.
Frequently asked questions
Should I bet on US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026??
Based on our analysis, we lean NO with 72% confidence, but this is a research signal, not financial advice.
What does edge mean for US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026??
Edge (-2.9 pts) is the gap between our probability estimate and the market price. Positive edge on NO means the market may be underpricing this outcome.
How accurate is this prediction?
Check our track record at /accuracy for live Brier scores and calibration data.
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