politics
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Leaning NO, 72% confidence. Our estimate: 44.2% vs market 54.0% (edge: -9.8 pts).
Key reasons
- Price is near historical base rate — crowd is relatively efficient
- Whale-level volume signals potential institutional conviction
- Preddy 14.5% vs market 54.0% (lower independent estimate)
What could break this thesis
- No significant edge identified at current price level
- A two-week US-Iran ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan on April 8 and requiring halted attacks by the US and Israel alongside Iran's reopening o…
- No fresh cited political source is currently attached, so this is mainly a market-structure thesis.
What this analysis does not cover
This analysis does not account for breaking news, regulatory changes, or insider information that may emerge after publication.
Frequently asked questions
Should I bet on US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026??
Based on our analysis, we lean NO with 72% confidence, but this is a research signal, not financial advice.
What does edge mean for US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026??
Edge (-9.8 pts) is the gap between our probability estimate and the market price. Positive edge on NO means the market may be underpricing this outcome.
How accurate is this prediction?
Check our track record at /accuracy for live Brier scores and calibration data.
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