politics
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?
Leaning YES, 72% confidence. Our estimate: 28.5% vs market 23.5% (edge: +5.0 pts).
Key reasons
- Price is near historical base rate — crowd is relatively efficient
- Whale-level volume signals potential institutional conviction
- Liquidity regime is 330,466 USDC / 24h with spread 2.00%
What could break this thesis
- No significant edge identified at current price level
- US naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz, initiated April 13 after Islamabad peace talks collapsed, marks the freshest es…
- No fresh cited political source is currently attached, so this is mainly a market-structure thesis.
What this analysis does not cover
This analysis does not account for breaking news, regulatory changes, or insider information that may emerge after publication.
Frequently asked questions
Should I bet on Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st??
Based on our analysis, we lean YES with 72% confidence, but this is a research signal, not financial advice.
What does edge mean for Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st??
Edge (+5.0 pts) is the gap between our probability estimate and the market price. Positive edge on YES means the market may be underpricing this outcome.
How accurate is this prediction?
Check our track record at /accuracy for live Brier scores and calibration data.
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