Economics
Will the Fed cut by July 2026?
Quick answer
Base case: the market is directionally sensible, but the timing edge is often weaker than the headline implies.
Short reasoning
Rate-cut markets compress inflation, labor, growth, and communication into one binary contract. That makes them useful, but noisy. The shape of repricing matters more than one static number.
Uncertainty
Inflation persistence and labor surprises can rewire the timing path much faster than static priors suggest.
Gap
Without EdgeVisor you mostly see the contract price. With EdgeVisor you see whether the disagreement comes from timing compression, crowding, or a clean information edge.