{"slug":"fed-rate-cut-macro-divergence","title":"Fed rate cut probability — when macro models diverge from market pricing","category":"macro","market_id":null,"problem":"Prediction markets priced the March 2026 Fed rate cut at 42%, while EdgeVisor's macro analyst flagged a structural divergence: bond market implied probabilities, Fed funds futures, and employment data all pointed to 60%+.","signal":"The divergence signal triggered when 3 of 4 macro indicators disagreed with the prediction market price by more than 15 points. Smart money wallets showed coordinated buying at the 40-45% level.","result":"The Fed did cut rates. The market price moved from 42% to 85% over 3 weeks as economic data confirmed the trend, with the final resolution at YES.","lesson":"Prediction markets for macro events can lag behind traditional financial instruments by days or weeks. Cross-referencing with bond/futures implied probabilities provides a reliable arbitrage signal when the gap exceeds 15 points.","brier_score":0.09,"edge_pct":0.2,"published_at":"2026-03-28T08:00:00+00:00","updated_at":"2026-04-20T12:46:01.306264+00:00"}